This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
From an offensive perspective, the Week 6 slate was just brutal. I have been operating under the assumption that NFL offenses by mid-October would start to, you know, look functional, but I think it’s clearly apparent there’s just a lot of bad football teams this year.
You’d think six teams on bye in Week 7 would alleviate that issue somewhat, but there are only two games with an over/under above 45 points this week. Bleh. With a litany of injuries impacting the slate and the potential for bad weather doing the same, I think we could see the fewest total points scored in a given week in quite some time.
Below you will find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 7 NFL slate.
For more NFL betting content at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series, with several articles dropping each week.
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks For Each Game
|Date||Game Matchup||Week 3 Picks|
|Thursday, October 19||Jaguars vs. Saints||Jaguars +3, over 39|
|Sunday, October 22||Lions vs. Ravens||Ravens -3, under 42|
|Sunday, October 22||Raiders vs. Bears||Raiders -3, under 37.5|
|Sunday, October 22||Browns vs, Colts||Browns -2, under 39|
|Sunday, October 22||Bills vs. Patriots||Bills -9, under 41.5|
|Sunday, October 22||Commanders vs. Giants||Giants +2.5, over 39.5|
|Sunday, October 22||Falcons vs. Buccaneers||Buccaneers -2.5, over 38.5|
|Sunday, October 22||Steelers vs. Rams||Rams -3, under 43|
|Sunday, October 22||Cardinals vs. Seahawks||Cardinals +8, over 44.5|
|Sunday, October 22||Packers vs. Broncos||Packers -1, over 44.5|
|Sunday, October 22||Chargers vs. Chiefs||Chiefs -5.5, under 49|
|Sunday, October 22||Dolphins vs. Eagles||Eagles -2, over 52|
|Monday, October 23||49ers vs. Vikings||49ers -6.5, over 43.5|
NFL Week 7 Byes
Predictions for NFL Week 7
In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 7 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.
Week 6 Record ATS: 10-5
Week 6 Record on Totals: 5-9-1
Season Record ATS: 47-43-3
Season Record on Totals: 38-51-2
Jaguars vs. Saints
|Jaguars vs. Saints||Saints -3||New Orleans -155; Jacksonville +130||39|
Nine of the 13 Week 7 games have a three-point spread or lower. I know there’s the home-field advantage element that I should be factoring in, but in most of these contests I think one team is clearly better.
Entering this season I had assumed the Saints were going to walk away with the NFC South. They still might, but New Orleans feels more like one of the “better bad teams” than a team that beats up on bad competition. Of course, in this scenario I somehow have more faith in Doug Pederson and the Jaguars scheming an effective offense through four quarters — a statement that should have one of those large pesticide labels with a massive skull and crossbones across it.
Spread Pick: Jaguars +3
Total Pick: Over 39
Lions vs. Ravens
|Lions vs. Ravens||Ravens -3||Baltimore -166; Detroit +140||42|
I actually think this is one of the few times where I’d say the Lions are the better team, but injuries and such make me a bit less confident in the result. I’ve been pretty spot on with both the London games themselves and how teams will fare after returning home, so understand this does make me really nervous.
That being said, Jared Goff has historically struggled outdoors, especially in conditions like we could see in Baltimore come Sunday. No David Montgomery to effectively create play-action opportunities doesn’t help things either, and it’s not as if the Ravens’ offense can get much worse than what we saw the past couple weeks.
Spread Pick: Ravens -3
Total Pick: Under 42
Raiders vs. Bears
|Raiders vs. Bears||Raiders -3||Las Vegas -155; Chicago +130||37.5|
I’m a relatively recent addition to the “New Dad Club,” so forgive me if I somehow think about cutting grass significantly more than I did two years ago.
I don’t care if you live on the 50th floor of some massive state-of-the-art utopian building seen in Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper — an excellent “bad dad movie” for those under 40, by the way — there has to be some grass you can cut as opposed to subjecting yourself to this atrocity of a game. I promise it will be a better use of your time.
Spread Pick: Raiders -3
Total Pick: Under 37.5
Browns vs. Colts
|Browns vs. Colts||Browns -2||Cleveland -130; Indianapolis +110||39|
I thought the Browns/49ers line was incredibly fishy when I wrote last week’s piece, and I was near gleeful by the end of the week having watched everything shift dramatically in favor of San Francisco with Deshaun Watson (shoulder) out again. Needless to say, it was incredibly frustrating to see every obvious teaser and parlay blow up thanks to the Browns and/or the Jets.
I don’t know if Watson will be available this week. And frankly, I’m not sure it will really matter with this Browns defense. Or I should say, I’m not sure it will really matter with Gardner Minshew playing against this Browns defense.
Spread Pick: Browns -2
Total Pick: Under 39
Bills vs. Patriots
|Bills vs. Patriots||Bills -9||Buffalo -410; New England +320||41.5|
Matchups between the Bills and Patriots have generally been pretty close since the rise of Josh Allen. Nine points feels like a pretty massive spread, but then I remembered some combination of Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham will quarterback the Patriots this week and I became infinitely less worried.
Especially with all the injuries to a New England defensive unit that looked like it could carry bad quarterback play a la the Jets, I don’t think it will take much for the Bills to handle their opponent in Foxborough.
Spread Pick: Bills -9
Total Pick: Under 41.5
Commanders vs. Giants
|Commanders vs. Giants||Commanders -2.5||Washington -125; New York +105||39.5|
Look, you’ll never accuse me of being a Giants apologist, but there’s no way this team should be a home underdog against this version of the Commanders.
From a betting perspective I would prefer Tyrod Taylor start this game, as in my mind he’s a better quarterback than Daniel Jones (neck) — especially a limited Jones. But it really doesn’t make much of a difference to me either way. No, the Giants didn’t “find” something Sunday night and I’d sooner take them getting annihiliated most weeks. But Saquon Barkley does give the Giants the one — and frankly only — offensive threat capable of helping them score points every drive. That might be all that it takes in a classic NFC Least tilt from yesteryears.
Spread Pick: Giants +2.5
Total Pick: Over 39.5
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
|Falcons vs. Buccaneers||Buccaneers -2.5||Tampa Bay -135; Atlanta +114||38.5|
This is another easy call in my mind. You’re telling me I get the better team at home, the one that has the better quarterback, and I don’t have to push with a field goal?
People are overestimating the Falcons thanks to a one-point win over a bad Packers team back in Week 2. If not for that game, I’d blissfully be dreaming about a scenario where Caleb Williams could be throwing to the likes of his old college teammate Drake London and Kyle Pitts. That is, before the dream would pop cartoon-style with the realization that head coach Arthur Smith will just be calling 48 runs as opposed to his usual average of 51.
Spread Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Total Pick: Over 38.5
Steelers vs. Rams
|Steelers vs. Rams||Rams -3||Los Angeles -162; Pittsburgh +136||43|
This is another line that I just don’t understand at all. Sure, Kyren Williams has been a revelation for the Rams and will be missed if he’s unable to play on a sprained ankle. Are Royce Freeman and Zach Evans really that much worse than the second-year running back, though?
My answer is obviously no, but more importantly, quarterback Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Matt Canada are truly that spectacularly bad. Don’t even look at the records of these two teams because it won’t make anything more clear. Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald will be the two best players on either side of the ball all game — maybe I’m discounting T.J. Watt too much — and that’s really all there is to it.
Spread Pick: Rams -3
Total Pick: Under 43
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
|Cardinals vs. Seahawks||Seahawks -8||Seattle -380; Arizona +300||44.5|
I like the Seahawks and have made a few future bets pertaining to them making the playoffs, but I don’t think they’re obviously a touchdown-plus favorite against a team that has been pretty gamey against the spread.
This is one of the few games that I feel reasonably confident will have some offense in it, although Joshua Dobbs has had two consecutive bad showings and might be trending back toward the journeyman quarterback most expected him to be.
Spread Pick: Cardinals +8
Total Pick: Over 44.5
Packers vs. Broncos
|Packers vs. Broncos||Packers -1||Green Bay -115; Denver -105||44.5|
I’d like to think this is one of those obvious games where one team is better than the other, but I was burned badly by that thought process back in Week 5 when the Packers lost a very winnable game against the Raiders.
I do think you could get by with almost any sort of over from a prop bet perspective, as I believe it will be a comedy of errors watching these two teams try to play defense. Doing this write-up on Tuesday typically means I’m without prop options, but I’d recommend checking in with RotoWire’s Jim Coventry on Twitter before the end of the week to get a lay of the land.
Spread Pick: Packers -1
Total Pick: Over 44.5
Chargers vs. Chiefs
|Chargers vs. Chiefs||Chiefs -5.5||Kansas City -245; Los Angeles +200||49|
I’d be truly stunned if the Chiefs lose this game. The Chargers have always competed with the Chiefs even dating back to the final years with Philip Rivers, but they’ve rarely come out victorious. This version of Los Angeles seems the most “Chargery” of them all, and probably is the best “good bad team” on a long list of options. Kansas City is now 2-4 in over/unders this year and while the line is smaller than I would have guessed, I don’t think it takes into account a level of dysfunction we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from the Chargers offense.
Spread Pick: Chiefs -5.5
Total Pick: Under 49
Dolphins vs. Eagles
|Dolphins vs. Eagles||Eagles -2||Philadelphia -125; Miami +105||52|
After a full month of being tortured with the Giants and Daniel Jones in prime time, NFL fans have finally been given this treat. Injuries to Lane Johnson (ankle), Jalen Carter (ankle) and a slew of secondary pieces for the Eagles definitely complicates this one for me. I’d like to assume this is finally the game where Philadelphia plays to the level we anticipated coming into the season, but I don’t think it’s quite that simple.
Something just isn’t right with the offensive scheme, and I think it’s relatively clear by now that the offense piloted by offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is vastly better than whatever version we’re seeing in 2023. The Eagles are the better and deeper team, and I still feel confident they will be shoe-ins for the NFC Championship barring any major season-ending injuries, but I’m far less certain about what a Week 7 result against the Dolphins will look like.
Spread Pick: Eagles -2
Total Pick: Over 52
49ers vs. Vikings
|49ers vs. Vikings||49ers -6.5||San Francisco -290; Minnesota +235||43.5|
I would have enjoyed Justin Jefferson (ankle) playing in this one, but with the list of injuries San Francisco is dealing with, perhaps things will be a bit more competitive. Even though I essentially called how the Browns’ defense would dominate the game last week, I’m not at all swayed off my prediction of the 49ers cruising to the NFC Championship.
I don’t believe Brock Purdy has the talent to win games against legitimately good teams, but he doesn’t need to in Kyle Shanahan’s system, and more importantly he will typically have the players around him to negate whatever skill advantage the second-year quarterback might give up.
I know reports late last week suggested Kirk Cousins will stay in Minnesota for the remainder of the season, but I beg the front office of the Vikings to try and get him to waive his no-trade clause. Who cares about feelings and family and Netflix specials when you can get a third-round pick this year! You have to take advantage of the asset! That the Vikings play my beloved Packers next week is inconsequential in this whole mess…
Spread Pick: 49ers -6.5
Total Pick: Over 43.5
NFL Week 7 Best Bets
Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 7 NFL best bets at NFL betting sites. We went 5-6 in best bets last week, but a potentially monster day was completely ruined with teasers on the 49ers and Eagles. I know I should never do any teasers, but what’s the fun in that?
BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 7
BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 7. If you’re not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 3 at BetMGM.
- Eagles -1.5 (-112)
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 7
Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 7. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.
- Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)
- Rams -3 (-105)
WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 7
WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 3 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.
- Buccaneers +4, Raiders +3.5, Bills -2, Packers/Broncos over 38 points — 6.5-point teaser (+180)
- Raiders moneyline (-155)
DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 7
DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 7 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
- Packers -1, Rams -3, Raiders -3, Buccaneers -2.5 — four-team parlay (+1205)
- Buccaneers moneyline (-135)
- Raiders, Bills, Buccaneers, Rams moneyline parlay (+476)
FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 7
One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.
- Bills, Chiefs, Buccaneers moneyline three-team parlay (+202)
- Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown to combine for 250+ receiving yards (+600)
BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 7
BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 7.
- Bills -8 (-113)
PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 7
For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 7 NFL picks. You can try “PointsBetting” for Week 7 to maximize your return.
- 49ers -6.5 (-112)
Look ahead at the NFL Week 8 odds as well, if you’re interested in getting ahead of the line movement.