Sports news

NFL best bets for Week 11: Chiefs will shake it off against Eagles

I forgot what a winning week feels like. Don’t worry: I was served a big enough helping of humble pie over the past month to not let my ego spiral out of control this time around, but it does feel good to see my work validated with two winning Week 10 selections.

The San Francisco 49ers, as short favorites, made it look easy with a 34-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brock Purdy threw three touchdown passes, including a 66-yard strike to George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel returned from injury after a three-game hiatus to record 59 total yards and a touchdown, including a 23-yard run in the third quarter.

The “Monday Night Football” game between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills also delivered a successful trip to the ticket window after a 24-22 final score that cashed the under. That was even after Broncos kicker Wil Lutz got a second chance at a go-ahead field goal after the Bills were penalized for having 12 men on the field. Lutz’s kick made winners of the Broncos but didn’t affect our over/under of 47.

Speaking of the Bills, a few weeks ago (when Buffalo was 5-3) I advocated taking the in-season under of 10½ or 9½ wins because of the Bills’ daunting remaining schedule. There are seven games left, and Buffalo — now 5-5 after consecutive prime-time losses — must still face the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins on the road plus the Dallas Cowboys at home. Hopefully you took advantage of the prior recommendation — and are enjoying seeing Buffalo’s current season win total set at 8½.

Best bets record: 8-9

Player prop record: 5-4

Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds. Check back later in the week for a potential player prop.

Bye week: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints

This series will examine the impact of legalized gambling on sports, through news coverage, accountability journalism and advice for navigating this new landscape.

Read more.

Return to menu

Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC, ESPN

Pick: Chiefs -2½ playable to -3

I am surprised the spread is less than three in this Super Bowl rematch. After adjusting for efficiency, the Chiefs — who are coming off a bye — have been the third-best team in the NFL this season, per analyst Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average metric. The Eagles — who are also coming off their bye — are ninth. Breaking it down further, Kansas City has had the sixth-best offense and the third-best defense while Philadelphia is ranked seventh and 19th.

It’s that Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense matchup in particular that has me leaning toward Kansas City in this Monday night meeting. Philadelphia is allowing opponents to convert a new set of downs or score a touchdown on 73 percent of drives. There are only four teams that are worse: the Carolina Panthers, the Arizona Cardinals, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Broncos. The Chiefs struggled a bit against Denver in Week 8, but they did hang 31 points on the Chargers in Week 7. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 424 yards and four touchdowns in that win, and the Eagles’ defense could be similarly vulnerable.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Chargers -3

Green Bay is not playing very good football. The Packers’ offense ranks 19th in points per drive (1.8) and only improves to 18th when you adjust its efficiency for situation and opponent. Jordan Love ranks 22nd in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating, which judges quarterbacks on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale, adjusted for the strength of the opposing defense. The Packers have also benefited greatly from opponents missing six field goals, tied for the most of any team with the Bears.

The Chargers’ offense is ranked eighth after adjusting its efficiency for situation and opponent. Los Angeles has seen its fair share of luck, too, but should be able to walk away with a victory at Lambeau Field.

Net Win Probability Added table through week 10.

CIN WR Tyler Boyd dropped TD pass at with 1:42 left in 4th quarter was luckiest play of week 10 (+33.5% WP for HOU) pic.twitter.com/vWRi0tTNNz

— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) November 14, 2023

Player prop of the week

Return to menu

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow under 256.5 passing yards

Mike Macdonald, the Ravens’ defensive coordinator over the past two seasons, has done some of his best work limiting Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow. In the three games in which Macdonald’s defense has faced Cincinnati, Burrow has averaged 218 passing yards. It’s an admittedly small sample size, but consider that Burrow had games with 416 and 525 passing yards against Baltimore the season before Macdonald rejoined the Ravens and replaced Wink Martindale as coordinator.

Baltimore also has the second-highest rated pass-coverage unit in the NFL this season, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus. The Ravens’ pass defense leads the league in touchdowns allowed per pass attempt and ranks fourth in net yards allowed per pass.

The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3½)

Return to menu

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

Pick: Ravens -4 (This number has since moved down.)

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-5)

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Texans -5

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7½)

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Bears +9 (This number has since moved down.)

Dallas Cowboys (-10½) at Carolina Panthers

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Cowboys -10½

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-13½)

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Raiders +12 (This number has since moved up.)

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-9)

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Giants +9½ (This number has since moved down.)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Steelers +2 (This number has since moved down.)

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

Return to menu

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Titans +6½ (This number has since moved up.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-11½)

Return to menu

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Buccaneers +11½

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Return to menu

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Jets +7

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Los Angeles Rams

Return to menu

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Rams +1

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2½)

Return to menu

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC

Pick: Broncos -2½

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button